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From: Free Thinking Doggie
Years ago I had this mate Rob... Worked with him at Lloyds of London & later at Deutsche Bank. He was a maths guy. I met him in the pub (Butcher's Hook & Cleaver) in Smithfield a few years back and he told me what he'd been up to. He developed a system which bet on arbitrage on different crude oil futures. Short & long dated. It did well, he got friends invested. Don't know the details of how it worked. Then in (I think 2007) there was an event in the Gulf, threat of closing the straights of Hormuz. And his system blew up. Lost a big chunk I believe.

Current Thread	Author	Time
Iran v Israel about to turn hot again? Not over til the fat lady sings......[more]	JonH🍕	11:01:29
>> Crude not getting excited though.	Free Thinking Doggie	11:30:49
>> +1%.	JonH🍕	12:14:31
>> Exactly. Expect a huge move if things kick off again.	Free Thinking Doggie	12:37:21
>> Iran won't close the Strait of Hormuz cos of their oil exports to China....[more]	JonH🍕	12:23:58
>> No, because they can’t	Denc 🗡	15:06:13
>> Just make it prohibitively expensive to insure.	JonH🍕	17:01:45
>> Missile the odd passing tanker.	JonH🍕	17:02:26
>> Interesting that. The Chinese think in decades.	Free Thinking Doggie	12:45:58
>> Volume must be an issue though. The big oil tankers carry millions of ... [more]	Free Thinking Doggie	12:49:27
>> True.	JonH🍕	14:34:24
>> 3m barrels vs 700 for a rail tanker. So > 4000 rail tankers required to ... [more]	Free Thinking Doggie	13:02:34
>> .....[more]	Free Thinking Doggie	12:52:35
>> Years ago I had this mate Rob......[more]	Free Thinking Doggie	12:43:19
>> Black swan. Works til it doesn't.	JonH🍕	14:35:45
>> I cannot even remember the event which triggered it.	Free Thinking Doggie	15:21:24

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